According to two sources close to Hamas’s leadership, the group has planned for a protracted conflict in the Gaza Strip and is confident it can halt Israel’s assault long enough to coerce its archenemy into agreeing to a truce.
In light of the sensitivity of the situation, sources who want to remain anonymous claim that Hamas has stocked up on weaponry, missiles, food, and medical supplies. According to Reuters’ interviews with several people familiar with the organization, its leaders are convinced that their tens of thousands of militants can hold out for months in a city of tunnels dug deep beneath the Palestinian enclave and use urban guerrilla tactics to thwart Israeli forces.
A ceasefire and negotiated settlement, in which Hamas would gain a tangible concession like the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages, is what Hamas hopes will happen if international pressure is applied to Israel to end the siege, as civilian casualties mount, according to the sources.
Four Hamas officials, a regional diplomat, and a person familiar with White House thinking have all said that the group has made its desire for such a prisoner release in exchange for hostages plain to the United States and Israel during indirect, Qatar-mediated hostage negotiations.
Hamas’ stated long-term goals include ending Israel’s blockade of Gaza (which has been in place for the past 17 years) and putting a stop to Israeli settlement construction as well as what Palestinians regard as heavy-handed measures by Israeli security forces at the al-Aqsa mosque (the holiest site in Islam outside of Mecca) in Jerusalem.
Thursday, United Nations experts warned that Palestinians in Gaza face a “grave risk of genocide” and asked for an immediate humanitarian truce. Many analysts predict the escalation of the issue with no obvious solution in sight.
“The mission to destroy Hamas is not easily achieved,” said Marwan Al-Muasher, Jordan’s former foreign minister and deputy prime minister who now works for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
“This conflict cannot be resolved through military means. We live in gloomy times. The length of this conflict is uncertain.
Since the strike on October 7, Israel has used massive aerial firepower. Every day of bloodshed in Gaza, where more than 2 million people are besieged in a narrow enclave with little access to basic necessities like water, food, and electricity, fuels protests around the world. On Tuesday, Israeli aircraft attacked a densely populated Palestinian refugee camp in Gaza, killing at least 50 people.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to wipe out Hamas and has rebuffed appeals for a truce. Israeli leaders have said they have no illusions about the future.
Former Israeli ambassador to the UN and Knesset foreign affairs and defense committee member Danny Danon has warned that the country is preparing for a “long and painful war.”
“We know at the end that we will prevail and that we will defeat Hamas,” he disclosed to Reuters. “The question will be the price, and we have to be very cautious and very careful and understand that it’s a very complex urban area to maneuver.”
The United States does not believe that a broad ceasefire is warranted at this time, but does acknowledge the need for temporary truces to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid.
Hamas is “ready to go”
Hamas must have had a long-term strategy after its attack on Israel, according to Adeeb Ziadeh, a Palestinian expert in international affairs at Qatar University.
“Those who carried out the attack on October 7 with such expertise, precision, and passion would have been ready for a protracted war. Ziadeh told Reuters that it was impossible for Hamas to launch such a strike without being properly prepared and mobilized for the outcome.
According to a person familiar with White House thinking who requested anonymity in order to talk freely, Washington anticipates that Hamas would try to bog down Israeli forces in street-by-street warfare in Gaza and inflict heavy enough military deaths to undermine Israeli public support for a drawn-out conflict.
The Israelis have assured their American allies, the person said, that they are ready to face Hamas’ guerrilla tactics and international condemnation of their offensive. It’s unclear, the insider continued, whether or not the country has the resources to completely wipe out Hamas or only severely weaken the group.
Hamas sources estimate that the organization has around 40,000 fighters. They have spent years digging a complex network of tunnels beneath the enclave, some of which are hundreds of kilometers in length and as deep as 80 meters.
Residents and videos show armed men coming from tunnels in Gaza on Thursday, firing at tanks before returning underground.
During what an Israeli military spokesman called a “complex urban fight” in Gaza, soldiers from the Yahalom special combat engineering unit reportedly collaborated with other forces to find and destroy tunnel shafts.
Ali Baraka, the head of Hamas’ external relations, located in Beirut, claimed the group’s military capabilities, especially its rockets, had gradually improved over the course of a succession of confrontations with Israel in recent decades. He also noted that the range of Hamas rockets had increased from the 2008 Gaza war (maximum of 40 km/25 miles) to the 2021 conflict (maximum of 230 km).
Baraka told Reuters, “In every war, we surprise the Israelis with something new.”
Hamas’ fighting capabilities remains mainly intact after weeks of shelling, according to an official close to the Lebanese movement Hezbollah, which is aligned with Hamas and supported by Iran. Officials from both Hezbollah and Hamas have stated that the two organizations share a military command center in Lebanon.
