By 2075, Pakistan may be the sixth-largest economy.
According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, the US is unlikely to repeat its relatively high performance from the previous decade.
ISLAMABAD: According to a Goldman Sachs estimate, Pakistan’s economy will rank sixth in the world by 2075 if the “necessary policies and institutions” are in place.
The authors of “The Path to 2075,” economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas, predicted that by 2075, China, India, the US, Indonesia, and Nigeria would be the five greatest economies.
Because of its projected population expansion, Pakistan, along with Egypt and Nigeria, may have one of the greatest economies in the world within the next 50 years.
Pakistan’s Real GDP is anticipated to reach $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to reach $27,100 by that time.
In roughly 2035, according to the two analysts, China’s GDP will surpass that of the US.
According to their forecast, India’s GDP would just barely surpass that of the US around 2075.
Goldman Sachs has increased their long-term growth forecasts to span 70 emerging and industrialised economies, 20 years after they first presented them for the BRIC (the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, and China, four developing nations).
The experts have now extended their estimates to 104 nations through the year 2075.
In their paper, Daly and Gedminas identified “protectionism and climate change” as two dangers that were crucial to both growth and the convergence of wages.
Risks to the economists’ estimates included “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism,” in particular.
In the preceding ten years, worldwide growth had slowed from an average of 3.6% per year to 3.2%, according to the research, and the downturn had been quite widespread.
The experts predicted that between 2024 and 2029, the global growth rate will average 2.8% before starting to decline.
The industrialised nations, such as China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany, would lead the league table of the largest economies when measured in dollars, they predicted, as emerging markets would continue to converge.
Egypt, Pakistan, and Nigeria might potentially be included.
They predicted that the US was unlikely to replicate its relatively strong performance of the previous ten years and that the exceptional robustness of the dollar would also wane over the following ten years.
The economists claimed in their writings that their predictions suggested the world had reached its maximum potential for growth.
They also noted that the demographics were largely to blame for this anticipated slowdown, as the rate of population growth worldwide had decreased by 50% over the previous 50 years.
