DELHI, New
Progress on concerns like food security, debt hardship, and global collaboration on climate change may be derailed by deeper and more entrenched disagreements over Russia’s war in Ukraine at this weekend’s summit of the world’s most powerful nations in New Delhi.
During India’s leadership this year, the G20 has held roughly 20 ministerial sessions, but the hardening attitude on the war has blocked consensus on even a single communique, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible.
Neither country is likely to join any consensus, however, as Premier Li Qiang will be representing China instead of President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has confirmed his absence.
That implies the Western world and its allies will have the upper hand over the summit’s two days beginning on September 9. President Joe Biden of the United States, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, President Emmanuel Macron of France, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan are just some of the G20 leaders who will be in attendance.
Analysts predicted that if the summit were to fail, it would highlight the limitations of collaboration between Western and non-Western powers and encourage countries to double down on the groupings with whom they are most familiar.
For the elimination of international dangers “breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn’t what you want,” Michael Kugelman, head of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington, said.
If Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi fails to use his presidency to elevate New Delhi to the status of economic superpower and leader of the global south, he would suffer a blow to his diplomatic credibility.
Specifically, “if the leaders’ summit is a flop, New Delhi and especially Modi will have suffered a major diplomatic, and political, setback,” Kugelman warned.
If India does not join the rest of the group in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, then its presidency will be the first to finish without a joint statement, the so-called Leaders Declaration, since 2008.
A senior Indian government official told Reuters that “the positions have hardened since the Bali Summit,” alluding to the gathering in Indonesia in 2022. Since then, Russia and China have taken more hardline stances, making consensus extremely challenging.
Moment of Truth
The Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, successfully negotiated a last-minute united statement from the group in Bali. According to a second government official, India is keeping its fingers crossed that the leaders would come to an agreement at the eleventh hour once again.
To quote from the Bali Leaders’ Declaration: “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”
In addition, “other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions” were acknowledged.
According to another Indian source, “Russia and China were more flexible” in Bali. Nonetheless, “countries are not agreeing even to the language used in the Bali Declaration” as the war enters its nineteenth month.
Trudeau, the prime minister of Canada, and Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia and Putin’s replacement, have already chosen sides.
In a phone chat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Trudeau confirmed that he will fly to India for the summit but expressed his disappointment that Zelenskiy was not invited.
Trudeau told Zelenskiy on the phone, “As you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you, and we will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine.”
Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov threatened to veto the G20 summit’s final conclusion if it did not include Moscow’s stance on the Ukraine crisis. Diplomats said it was highly unlikely that Moscow’s position would be accepted and that the summit would issue a binding or comprehensive communique.
Do the Chinese want to push the BRICS forward?
China-led group BRICS welcomed six new members last month in an effort to reshape what it sees as an outmoded international order.
According to Eurasia Group director David Boling, “Xi’s absence may be Beijing’s attempt to put a nail in the G20’s coffin,” especially because the BRICS organisation has been expanded recently and is more in line with China’s world vision.
India, together with Russia, China, Brazil, and South Africa, makes up BRICS. Initially, India had some reservations about the group’s growth. However, it agreed to the entry standards at the Johannesburg conference last month.
India has used its G20 presidency to try to move past disagreements over Ukraine and instead focus on addressing climate change, reducing debt for vulnerable nations, establishing rules for cryptocurrencies, and reforming multilateral banks.
Indian authorities have indicated that despite New Delhi’s efforts, Russia is unlikely to change its stance and enable the safe transport of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea.
While discussions on debt restructuring and a worldwide minimum corporate tax have stalled this year, India has succeeded in rallying support from the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for comprehensive global controls on cryptocurrencies.
Increasing funding by multilateral banks to developing countries has also been advocated by a G20 committee led by former Indian official N.K. Singh and economist Larry Summers, a former US treasury secretary. There is still no consensus on the proposal.
Officials from both industrialised and developing countries have maintained that their positions on climate change targets will not alter at the summit.
