In a move that clears the way for a general election to be held under a neutral caretaker government, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif dissolved the lower house of parliament on Wednesday in ISLAMABAD.
With the country dealing with constitutional, political, and economic issues, the election date is undetermined, despite the fact that it is supposed to be held within 90 days, by November.
Here are some important queries on the situation and the anticipated development of events over the next few months.
In what month will a new administration take office?
Until a new prime minister is chosen, Shehbaz will remain in office. A consensus leader for the caretaker administration will be chosen by him and the opposition leader in parliament.
The constitution gives them till Saturday at midnight to work out their differences. If they don’t, the choice will be made by a parliamentary committee, which would then submit its recommendations to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).
If a decision is not reached quickly, this could take up to a week. The interim prime minister will then select a cabinet to lead the country’s most important government agencies.
Imran Khan, the former prime minister and current leader of the opposition, will have no role in this because members of his party resigned from parliament last year in protest at his removal from office in a vote of no confidence.
His former party members, led by opposition leader Raja Riaz, are now the opposition. After being found guilty of graft, Khan was sentenced to three years in prison and was banned from running for office for five years.
Will there be a postponement of elections?
The transitional administration has 90 days to convene elections. However, the ECP must redraw electoral boundaries after the outgoing administration approved a new census in its dying days.
According to a former commission official, it might take six months or more to redraw boundaries for hundreds of federal and provincial constituencies in a country of 241 million people.
Given that candidates may file lawsuits challenging the revised constituency boundaries, the ECP must first estimate how long it will take to finish the exercise before setting an election date.
An announcement of a caretaker prime minister is expected today.
Who are the leading candidates?
Imran’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are the three major parties vying to form the next government.
His PTI hopes to capitalize on his supporters’ sympathy and indignation and replicate its 2018 election success even if Imran is in jail and cannot vote. However, in light of the ongoing impasse with the military, PTI’s hopes rest on a reconciliation with the generals, which currently appears improbable.
Nawaz Sharif, the brother of the departing prime minister and the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, is attempting to return from exile. Shehbaz is still a leading candidate for reelection, despite the fact that the corruption conviction against him has not been overturned.
Another important candidate is Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 34, chairman of the PPP and son of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. As foreign minister in the outgoing government, he caused waves at home and in major international capitals and is now largely considered a prospective prime minister.
Difficulties in the run-up to the elections
The country’s $350 billion economy is on a precarious road to recovery thanks to an IMF bailout that prevented a sovereign debt default, making economic stabilization the primary task. Inflation and interest rates are at all-time highs because of economic reforms.
After Imran’s imprisonment and exile, political instability has emerged as a major issue. His supporters did not go on a rampage after his arrest, as they did in May, but his continuing confinement casts doubt on the legitimacy of the election.
If the elections are postponed for more than 90 days, constitutional and legal questions will arise, and an active Supreme Court is known to weigh in to interpret constitutional questions.
